Playing Probability Described


In a parlay, all bets need to win in order for the parlay to win. If one of the bets on a parlay loses, the whole parlay loses. In the event of a push, the pushed bet would be taken out of the parlay and the parlay would bump down to a set of odds without that bet. If the final adjusted score is a tie, the bet is considered a push. The half point at the end is sometimes added to eliminate the possibility of a push.

Parlay bets are combined bets that can pay out very high odds. You make several bets together and if they all come in, you can potentially win big. Maybe your sleeper team didn’t cover, but there’s still plenty of time for them to get back on track. And maybe your best bet didn’t hit, but that doesn’t mean that the team is bad. They might have just had a bad week, like the Packers did in Week 1. Now, Week 2 of the NFL season is here, and bettors are feeling a lot better about the data they’ve been given.

A ‘spread’ is essentially a prediction of what will happen in a specified market for a given sports event, expressed as a SELL-BUY range. For example, the ‘spread’ for Total Goals in a football match may be 2.8 – 3.0. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 55% of retail investors lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In contrast, the moneyline for a team that is a 7-point favorite could be -350, while a 7-point underdog could be +285. Bettors who choose the underdog win their wager when that team either wins the event outright OR loses by an amount less than the point spread. In this case, the Rams have “covered the spread.” If the Rams win the game outright, they have likewise covered the spread. In the example above, Kansas City was a +650 moneyline favorite to be the first back-to-back Super Bowl winner since New England in 2005. Bettors needed to wager $100 to earn a $650 return if the Chiefs repeated as champs.

The exception to this is with exchange sites, which will often offer them as an additional product, but again they usually need to be sought out. Other odds formats do exist around the world though if you are betting from the United States, you are very unlikely to come across them. For Tennessee, which wins you $190 for a $100 stake, we can consider this as a fraction; 190 to 100. The method of determining probability from U.S. odds format differs, dependent on whether that number is positive or negative. Fractional odds retain a stubborn foothold with bookmakers whose customers are familiar with them, especially in the retail environment of sportsbooks.

Prop bets are a great way for bettors to place wagers on something other than the outcome such as an individual’s performance or a team’s collective performance where the final score does not matter. Proposition bets – A bet on anything that is not directly tied to the outcome of the game. For example, it can be the first team or the first player to score in a game.

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